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Bongbong and Ilocano assn. in Sydney

Theory of dropping off running mate in PH election

BY OBET DIONISIO. All leading contenders know that both Presidential and Vice-Presidential races are tight. And I assume that they know where their tandem partners are presently standing.  To assure of victory, they must have thought of making drastic decisions in the days to come and may resort to “Laglag Deals” with the other parties (election strategy of dropping off election tandem partners).

Presidential bet Davao Mayor Rodrigo Duterte knows that Vice Presidential candidate Bongbong Marcos is stronger than Duterte’s partner vice presidential bet Allan Peter Cayetano.

Marcos also knows that his partner presidential candidate Miriam Santiago has no chance of winning.  To overtake presidential candidate Senator Grace Poe and have a big margin over presidential bets Vice President Jejomar Binay and former Department of Interior Secretary Mar Roxas, would Duterte not think that it is wiser to make a deal with Marcos by dropping Cayetano?

               Dropping Miriam Santiago

And Marcos can easily drop Santiago in favor of Duterte to a have a jumpstart over vice presidential bets Senator Chiz Escudero and Congresswoman Leni Robredo. That would make a formidable Duterte-Marcos team.

As a plus factor for Marcos, he could end up as President if something happens to Duterte, considering that Duterte may have stepped on too many people’s feet, especially from drug lords, smugglers, and other criminal elements.

Let us look at another angle. Marcos being a shrewd political tactician like his father, may also make a double-barreled gamble, making also a deal with Binay.

Marcos would be happy to have Binay win the presidential election with him as Vice-President, with a foresight that if Binay is disqualified after the election due to massive fraud charges

against him, then he would be handed on a silver platter the Presidency.

In the case of Binay, he would gladly accept the deal with Marcos, knowing that his partner Honasan is a no-win candidate.


Scenario for Mar Roxas


What is now the scenario for Roxas to win the Presidency ? He would not make a deal with Marcos or Escudero, much less with Cayetano. He is stuck with Robredo.  And Robredo would not make any deal with anybody.

While I believe Roxas is morally qualified to be President, his previous indiscretions on his various decisions is dragging him behind the race.

Also his association with the incumbent President, instead of being a plus factor may instead be a minus factor in his candidacy. He may be relying on the possibility that the “Picos” machines, through the control of the current administration and the Liberal Party, could be manipulated in his favor. What I am afraid of is the Liberal Party might trade.                                                                        Roxas with Poe, just to be assured that the Liberal Party would be in power for the next six years, with either Robredo or Cayetano as Vice-President.


        Binay’s Deal with Local Government                                      

Looking at a different scenario. What if Binay has already made a deal with the various local government officials he had previously visited, and will flood with money the electorate come election time, and to assure himself of victory also made some

“arrangements” with the local election officials that maybe on the take.

That would catapult him to the Presidency without making a deal with anybody.  This may look a very peaceful outcome, but let us not discount the “military intervention” after the election.  Knowing that Binay has been involved in various graft and corruption charges, while still not proven, and having the

knowledge that Binay used his money to win the election, what would the military do?

Would this not be a ripe situation for them to stage a “coup de tat”, unseat Binay and establish a military junta?  I dread not to think of the consequences.

Why is the United States of America very silent on the American Citizenship issue of Poe? Could Poe be an American lackey, being married to US citizen and a former American soldier with the US government silently supporting her candidacy and even helping on her two election disqualifications cases (citizenship and residency).


Poe’s X Factor this election


Could this be the X-Factor that every body has not considered in their analyses? Could the CIA have influenced the decision to let Poe run as President, and made “representations” to relegate her residency requirements into the garbage disposal bin? It has been known that the CIA has long tentacles in their discreet operations.

Come to think of it, why are the people gravitating to Duterte? I remember the Tagalog saying “Ang taong nagigipit,

kahit sa patalim ay kumakapit”.

And what about Binay, why is it that despite the much publicized graft cases against him, people are still saying they will vote for him?

Could it be the poor people’s concept of “the money brings food to the table and feed my family”.  And in the case of Poe, is the “Masa” and “FPJ movie idolatry” effects are the two X-Factors carrying her?

And why is Roxas lagging behind despite his good credentials and having no corruption cases? Could it be the stigma of the Yolanda and Mamasapano still lingers in the minds of the people, or his association with Pres. Aquino?

What about the “Woman’s Factor”. The women’s vote could either or both bring Poe and Robredo over the line. And the Philippines could have a first in the world “First Women President and Vice-President” to lead a country.

I am not a qualified voter but personally I would prefer Miriam Santiago and Leni Robredo to win the elections. But this is what we call in Tagalog “Suntok sa Buwan”. By Obet Dionisio